يهدف البحث الى تحليل الخيارات الاستراتيجية للاقتراض الخارجي في العراق لاستشراف افضل الخيارات الاستراتيجية المستقبلية في مجال الاقتراض الخارجي في دائرة الدين العام في وزارة المالية ، وقد استخدم الباحث منهج دراسة الحالة وباستعمال اسلوب تحليل خوارزمية ال K-Means لتشخيص كفاءة الاقتراض الخارجي لعينة البحث البالغة (81) قرضا التي اقترضتها وزارة المالية للفترة 2007-2020 . ولقد كان الغرض الرئيسي للبحث المساهمة في تمكين وزارة المالية من تحديد الخيارات الامثل للاقتراض الخارجي مستقبلا والمبني على اساس معياري الكلفة والتمايز من بين ثلاثة انواع من القروض حسب الجهة المقرضة (الثنائية ، متعددة الاطراف ، التجارية).وكانت ابرز النتائج التي توصلت إليها الدراسة هي مدى أهمية التصنيف الائتماني للعراق في تحديد اسعار الفائدة ومدة القرض واثر ذلك على تحديد الخيار الاستراتيجي. وان القروض التجارية في اغلب الاحيان تكون ذات كلف اجمالية عالية بالرغم من فترة السداد القصيرة وهذا يجعلها الاسوأ من حيث قيادة الكلفة والتمايز على عكس القروض الثنائية التي كانت في الغالب الاقل كلفة والاكثر تمايزا. وتحديدا في القروض الثنائية لتمويل المشاريع كما كانت القروض النقدية متعددة الاطراف ذات كلفة اقل وتمايز اكثر.
المستخلص:
في هذا البحث , استعملنا طرائق مختلفة لتقدير معلمة القياس للتوزيع الاسي كمقدر الإمكان الأعظم ومقدر العزوم ومقدر بيز في ستة أنواع مختلفة عندما يكون التوزيع الأولي لمعلمة القياس : توزيع لافي (Levy) وتوزيع كامبل من النوع الثاني وتوزيع معكوس مربع كاي وتوزيع معكوس كاما وتوزيع غير الملائم (Improper) وتوزيع
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