: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.
In this paper, the reliability and scheduling of maintenance of some medical devices were estimated by one variable, the time variable (failure times) on the assumption that the time variable for all devices has the same distribution as (Weibull distribution.
The method of estimating the distribution parameters for each device was the OLS method.
The main objective of this research is to determine the optimal time for preventive maintenance of medical devices. Two methods were adopted to estimate the optimal time of preventive maintenance. The first method depends on the maintenance schedule by relying on information on the cost of maintenance and the cost of stopping work and acc
... Show MoreIn this paper three techniques for image compression are implemented. The proposed techniques consist of three dimension (3-D) two level discrete wavelet transform (DWT), 3-D two level discrete multi-wavelet transform (DMWT) and 3-D two level hybrid (wavelet-multiwavelet transform) technique. Daubechies and Haar are used in discrete wavelet transform and Critically Sampled preprocessing is used in discrete multi-wavelet transform. The aim is to maintain to increase the compression ratio (CR) with respect to increase the level of the transformation in case of 3-D transformation, so, the compression ratio is measured for each level. To get a good compression, the image data properties, were measured, such as, image entropy (He), percent r
... Show MoreGypsum Plaster is an important building materials, and because of the availabilty of its raw materials. In this research the effect of various additives on the properties of plaster was studied , like Polyvinyl Acetate, Furfural, Fumed Silica at different rate of addition and two types of fibers, Carbon Fiber and Polypropylene Fiber to the plaster at a different volumetric rate. It was found that after analysis of the results the use of Furfural as an additive to plaster by 2.5% is the optimum ratio of addition to that it improved the flexural Strength by 3.18%.
When using Polyvinyl Acetate it was found that the ratio of the additive 2% is the optimum ratio of addition to the plaster, because it improved the value of the flexural stre
Simulation experiments are a means of solving in many fields, and it is the process of designing a model of the real system in order to follow it and identify its behavior through certain models and formulas written according to a repeating software style with a number of iterations. The aim of this study is to build a model that deals with the behavior suffering from the state of (heteroskedasticity) by studying the models (APGARCH & NAGARCH) using (Gaussian) and (Non-Gaussian) distributions for different sample sizes (500,1000,1500,2000) through the stage of time series analysis (identification , estimation, diagnostic checking and prediction). The data was generated using the estimations of the parameters resulting f
... Show MoreThe present paper describes and analyses three proposed cogeneration plants include back pressure steam-turbine system, gas turbine system, diesel-engine system, and the present Dura refinery plant. Selected actual operating data are employed for analysis. The same amount of electrical and thermal product outputs is considered for all systems to facilitate comparisons. The theoretical analysis was done according to 1st and 2nd law of thermodynamic. The results demonstrate that exergy analysis is a useful tool in performance analysis of cogeneration systems and permits meaningful comparisons of different cogeneration systems based on their merits, also the result showed that the back pressure steam-turbine is more efficient than other pro
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The ability of pulverized walnut-shell to remove oil from aqueous solutions has been studied. It involves two-phase process which consists of using walnut-shell as a filtering bed for the accumulation and adsorption of oil onto its surface. Up to 96% oil removal from synthetic wastewater samples was achieved while tests results showed that 75% of oil can be removed from the actual wastewater discharged from Al- Duara refinery in the south of Baghdad.
The non static chain is always the problem of static analysis so that explained some of theoretical work, the properties of statistical regression analysis to lose when using strings in statistic and gives the slope of an imaginary relation under consideration. chain is not static can become static by adding variable time to the multivariate analysis the factors to remove the general trend as well as variable placebo seasons to remove the effect of seasonal .convert the data to form exponential or logarithmic , in addition to using the difference repeated d is said in this case it integrated class d. Where the research contained in the theoretical side in parts in the first part the research methodology ha
... Show MoreIntroduction: Although soap industry is known from hundreds of years, the development accompanied with this industry was little. The development implied the mechanical equipment and the additive materials necessary to produce soap with the best specifications of shape, physical and chemical properties. Objectives: This research studies the use of vacuum reactive distillation VRD technique for soap production. Methods: Olein and Palmitin in the ratio of 3 to 1 were mixed in a flask with NaOH solution in stoichiometric amount under different vacuum pressures from -0.35 to -0.5 bar. Total conversion was reached by using the VRD technique. The soap produced by the VRD method was compared with soap prepared by the reaction - only method which
... Show MoreBackground: Laser urinary stone lithotripsy is an established endourological modality. Ho:YAG(2100nm) laser have broadened the indications for ureteroscopic stone managements to include larger stone sizes throughout the whole urinary tract.
Purpose: To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of Holmium: YAG(2100nm) laser lithotripsy with a semirigid uretero scope for urinary stone calculi in a prospective cohort of 17 patients.
Patients and Methods: Holmium: YAG(2100nm) laser lithotripsy was performed with a semirigid ureteroscope in 17 patients from September 2016 to December 2016. Calculi were located in the lower ureter in 9 patients (52.9%), the midure
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