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Forecasting enhancement using a hodrick-prescott filter
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: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Analysis of Recorded Inflow Data of Ataturk Reservoir
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Since the beginning of the last century, the competition for water resources has intensified dramatically, especially between countries that have no agreements in place for water resources that they share. Such is the situation with the Euphrates River which flows through three countries (Turkey, Syria, and Iraq) and represents the main water resource for these countries. Therefore, the comprehensive hydrologic investigation needed to derive optimal operations requires reliable forecasts. This study aims to analysis and create a forecasting model for data generation from Turkey perspective by using the recorded inflow data of Ataturk reservoir for the period (Oct. 1961 - Sep. 2009). Based on 49 years of real inflow data

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Analysis of Mosul and Haditha Dam Flow Data
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The expansion in water projects implementations in Turkey and Syria becomes of great concern to the workers in the field of water resources management in Iraq. Such expansion with the absence of bi-lateral agreement between the three riparian countries of Tigris and Euphrates Rivers; Turkey, Syria and Iraq, is expected to lead to a substantially reduction of water inflow to the territories of Iraq. Accordingly, this study consists of two parts: first part is aiming to study the changes of the water inflow to the territory of Iraq, at Turkey and Syria borders, from 1953 to 2009; the results indicated that the annual mean inflow in Tigris River was decreased from 677 m3/sec to 526 m3/sec, after operating Turkey reserv

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 03 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Applying Social Stories in Developing Social Interaction Skills among Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder
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Abstract

The current research aims to identify the effectiveness of social stories in increasing social interaction among children with an autism spectrum disorder. The researcher used the single-subject design methodology (Single Subject Designs, SSD) with

 (A-B) design to answer the research questions. The study sample consisted of (3) children with autism spectrum disorder enrolled in a transit daycare center in the Asir region, Saudi Arabia. The results of the study showed that there is a positive functional relationship between social stories and play to increase social interaction among children with autism spectrum disorder, which contributed to the acquisition and generalization of this behav

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 06 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Application of Strategies about Pragmatic Language for Trainers who work at Autism Centers in Baghdad city
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Abstract

The study aimed: To assess the level of trainers' knowledge about the application of strategies and to find out the relationship between Trainer's knowledge and their socio-demographic characteristics.

Methodology: Using the pre-experimental design of the current study, for one group of 47 trainers working at the private Autism Centers in Baghdad, data was collected from 8/January / 2022 to 13 /February /2022. Using non-probability samples (convenient samples), self-management technology in which trainers fill out the questionnaire form themselves was used in the data collection process; it was analyzed through descriptive and inference statistics.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
The use of ARIMA, ANN and SVR models in time series hybridization with practical application
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Forecasting is one of the important topics in the analysis of time series, as the importance of forecasting in the economic field has emerged in order to achieve economic growth. Therefore, accurate forecasting of time series is one of the most important challenges that we seek to make the best decision, the aim of the research is to suggest employing hybrid models to predict daily crude oil prices. The hybrid model consists of integrating the linear component, which represents Box Jenkins models, and the non-linear component, which represents one of the methods of artificial intelligence, which is the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector regression (SVR) algorithm and it was shown that the proposed hybrid models in the predicti

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Natural Pigment –Poly Vinyl Alcohol Nano composites Thin Films for Solar Cell: nanocomposites thin film
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Solar cells thin films were prepared using polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) as a thin film, with extract of natural pigment from local flower. A concentration of 0.1g/ml of polyvinyl alcohol solution in water was prepared for four samples, with various concentrations of plant pigment (0, 15, 25 and 50) % added to each of the four solutions separately for preparing (PVA with low concentrated dye , PVA with medium concentrated dye and PVA with high concentrated dye ) thin films respectively . Ultraviolet absorption regions were obtained by computerized UV-Visible (CECIL 2700). Optical properties including (absorbance, reflectance, absorption coefficient, energy gap and dielectric constant) via UV- Vis were tested, too.  Fourier transform infra

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 17 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Digital addiction and its Relationship to social isolation among children in the autism Spectrum frome the viewpoint of their parents
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 This study titled “digital addiction and its relationship to social isolation among children in the autism spectrum from the point of view of their parents” in which the
researcher addressed an important topic which is knowledge of digital addiction in a
child with autism spectrum and its relationship to social isolation in them.
The study aimed to dhed the light on the digital addiction in a spectrum child Autism
from the point of view of their parents، by knowing the extent of addiction of children
in the autism spectrum، and identifying the relationship between electronic addiction and the social isolation of children in the autism spectrum.The study presented
several hypotheses،

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Gas Flow Formation in the Inertial Filtering (IF) Gas Separators Curvilinear Channels
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This paper deals with an up to date problem for oil and gas industry- separation of the gas -fluid fogs. Here is described the worked out physical model of the gas movement process in the sections of the inertial filtering (IF) gas separators. One can find the mathematical model for research of the fields of velocities and pressures in the inertial curvilinear channel. The main simplifications and assumptions are explained. This mathematical model has been made using mathematical program Maple and it is received the 3-d graphic of the distribution componential speed parts in the channel and also 2-d graphics at the channel sectional view when the flow is flat. The new method for gas - fluid systems separation is suggested.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Effect of Initial Water Content on the Properties of Compacted Expansive Unsaturated Soil
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Unsaturated soil can raise many geotechnical problems upon wetting and drying resulting in swelling upon wetting and collapsing (shrinkage) in drying and changing in the soil shear strength. The classical principles of saturated soil are often not suitable in explaining these phenomena. In this study, expansive  soil (bentonite and sand) were tested in different water contents and dry unit weight chosen from the compaction curve to examine the effect of water content change on soil properties (swelling pressure, expansion index, shear strength (soil cohesion) and soil suction by the filter paper method). The physical properties of these soils were studied by conducting series of tests in laboratory. Fitting methods

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
The use of ARIMA, LSTM and GRU models in time series hybridization with practical application
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The importance of forecasting has emerged in the economic field in order to achieve economic growth, as forecasting is one of the important topics in the analysis of time series, and accurate forecasting of time series is one of the most important challenges in which we seek to make the best decision. The aim of the research is to suggest the use of hybrid models for forecasting the daily crude oil prices as the hybrid model consists of integrating the linear component, which represents Box Jenkins models and the non-linear component, which represents one of the methods of artificial intelligence, which is long short term memory (LSTM) and the gated recurrent unit (GRU) which represents deep learning models. It was found that the proposed h

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