: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.
There is no adopt in the importance of the optical communications in scientific civil and military applications because of it’s simplicity in manufacturing and it's low cost. The method of optical communication depends upon bearing the light beam the translated informations by a method called the light modulation. This method depends upon changing some light properties as frequency, amplitude and pulse duration according to the translating informations. The changes in the first two properties are concerned optically with the analog modulation while the third one concern at most with digital modulation. All past methods are expensive with low efficiency and needs electrical or magnetic fields. In this technique the source of voice used
... Show MoreHuman Interactive Proofs (HIPs) are automatic inverse Turing tests, which are intended to differentiate between people and malicious computer programs. The mission of making good HIP system is a challenging issue, since the resultant HIP must be secure against attacks and in the same time it must be practical for humans. Text-based HIPs is one of the most popular HIPs types. It exploits the capability of humans to recite text images more than Optical Character Recognition (OCR), but the current text-based HIPs are not well-matched with rapid development of computer vision techniques, since they are either vey simply passed or very hard to resolve, thus this motivate that
... Show MoreCarbon-fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) is widely acknowledged as a leading advanced material structure, offering superior properties compared to traditional materials, and has found diverse applications in several industrial sectors, such as that of automobiles, aircrafts, and power plants. However, the production of CFRP composites is prone to fabrication problems, leading to structural defects arising from cycling and aging processes. Identifying these defects at an early stage is crucial to prevent service issues that could result in catastrophic failures. Hence, routine inspection and maintenance are crucial to prevent system collapse. To achieve this objective, conventional nondestructive testing (NDT) methods are utilized to i
... Show MoreIn this paper, we made comparison among different parametric ,nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for partial linear regression model users parametric represented by ols and nonparametric methods represented by cubic smoothing spline estimator and Nadaraya-Watson estimator, we study three nonparametric regression models and samples sizes n=40,60,100,variances used σ2=0.5,1,1.5 the results for the first model show that N.W estimator for partial linear regression model(PLM) is the best followed the cubic smoothing spline estimator for (PLM),and the results of the second and the third model show that the best estimator is C.S.S.followed by N.W estimator for (PLM) ,the
... Show MoreTested effective Alttafaria some materials used for different purposes, system a bacterial mutagenesis component of three bacterial isolates belonging to different races and materials tested included drug Briaktin
The aerodynamic characteristics of general three-dimensional rectangular wings are considered using non-linear interaction between two-dimensional viscous-inviscid panel method and vortex ring method. The potential flow of a two-dimensional airfoil by the pioneering Hess & Smith method was used with viscous laminar, transition and turbulent boundary layer to solve flow about complex configuration of airfoils including stalling effect. Viterna method was used to extend the aerodynamic characteristics of the specified airfoil to high angles of attacks. A modified vortex ring method was used to find the circulation values along span wise direction of the wing and then interacted with sectional circulation obtained by Kutta-Joukowsky the
... Show MoreIn many scientific fields, Bayesian models are commonly used in recent research. This research presents a new Bayesian model for estimating parameters and forecasting using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. Posterior distributions are generated using the inverse gamma distribution and the multivariate normal distribution as prior distributions. The new method was used to investigate and summaries Bayesian statistics' posterior distribution. The theory and derivation of the posterior distribution are explained in detail in this paper. The proposed approach is applied to three simulation datasets of 100, 300, and 500 sample sizes. Also, the procedure was extended to the real dataset called the rock intensity dataset. The actual dataset is collecte
... Show More