: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.
In this paper, a new third kind Chebyshev wavelets operational matrix of derivative is presented, then the operational matrix of derivative is applied for solving optimal control problems using, third kind Chebyshev wavelets expansions. The proposed method consists of reducing the linear system of optimal control problem into a system of algebraic equations, by expanding the state variables, as a series in terms of third kind Chebyshev wavelets with unknown coefficients. Example to illustrate the effectiveness of the method has been presented.
The kinetic of atropine pertraction from seeds of Datura Metel Linn plant was studied. Diisopropyl ether, n-hexane and n-heptane were used as membranes for atropine recovery. The effect of speed of agitation and time in the range of 200-300 rpm and 0-3.5h, respectively were studied using the proposed membranes. The pertraction experiments were carried outs in a batch laboratory unit. The liquid-liquid pertraction was found to be very suitable for atropine recovery from its liquid extracts of Datura Metel seeds. A high purity (94-96%) can be obtained in the receiver phase. The pertraction process was found to be very selective for atropine recovery with diisopropyl ether membrane. As the speed of agitation increases the efficiency of pertrac
... Show MoreThis paper delves into some significant performance measures (PMs) of a bulk arrival queueing system with constant batch size b, according to arrival rates and service rates being fuzzy parameters. The bulk arrival queuing system deals with observation arrival into the queuing system as a constant group size before allowing individual customers entering to the service. This leads to obtaining a new tool with the aid of generating function methods. The corresponding traditional bulk queueing system model is more convenient under an uncertain environment. The α-cut approach is applied with the conventional Zadeh's extension principle (ZEP) to transform the triangular membership functions (Mem. Fs) fuzzy queues into a family of conventional b
... Show MoreThe proton-neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2) has been used to make a schematic study of the Ruthenium ( ) isotopes of mass region around with and . For each isotope of the values of the IBM-2 Hamiltonian parameters, which yield an acceptable results for excitation energies in comparison with those of experimental data, have been determined. Fixed values of the effective charges ( ) and of the proton and neutron g factors ( and ) have been chosen for all isotopes under study. The calculated electric quadrupole moments of state, transitions, the magnetic dipole moments transitions and mixing ratios are in reasonable agreement with the experimental data.
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to:. Preparation and implementation of special educational units using multimedia to learn the skill of scrolling from below. 2 to recognize the impact of the use of multimedia in learning the skill of scrolling from below. 3 to identify the differences between the tests after the two groups research in learning the skill of passing from the bottom volleyball. The research represented the students of the first stage and the sample of the research was drawn randomly and the number of (50) students were divided into two experimental and control groups and each group (25) students were used standardized tests and conducting pre-tests and the implementation of the main exp
... Show MoreSome geological phenomena as landslides and the mobilization of the accumulated rocks or soil are discussed in this research by using projectiles that cause mobility and falling of these land masses which are present at the top of mountains and edges of roads and streets to avoid accidents and human disasters which will occur if they are left falling by effect of climate or vibrating factors that are produced by performing dams, bridges and reservoirs. According to the different divisions of land masses groups, primary and secondary, which depend on type of movement and material arrangement that form the mobile masses, this research had shown the effect of projectiles for every type of cannons on the mobility of every groups of these rocks
... Show MoreIn this research study theory to find the stress and emotion gases in the glass as a result of exposure to pulses of the laser beam has been the study using vehicles three major on-system axes cylindrical (r, 0, z), where I took three models of glass silica glass soda glass fused and shedtwo types of lasers where the study showed that the thermal stresses and emotions ...
The objective of the current research is to find an optimum design of hybrid laminated moderate thick composite plates with static constraint. The stacking sequence and ply angle is required for optimization to achieve minimum deflection for hybrid laminated composite plates consist of glass and carbon long fibers reinforcements that impeded in epoxy matrix with known plates dimension and loading. The analysis of plate is by adopting the first-order shear deformation theory and using Navier's solution with Genetic Algorithm to approach the current objective. A program written with MATLAB to find best stacking sequence and ply angles that give minimum deflection, and the results comparing with ANSYS.