: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.
This paper study two stratified quantile regression models of the marginal and the conditional varieties. We estimate the quantile functions of these models by using two nonparametric methods of smoothing spline (B-spline) and kernel regression (Nadaraya-Watson). The estimates can be obtained by solve nonparametric quantile regression problem which means minimizing the quantile regression objective functions and using the approach of varying coefficient models. The main goal is discussing the comparison between the estimators of the two nonparametric methods and adopting the best one between them
Sewer systems are used to convey sewage and/or storm water to sewage treatment plants for disposal by a network of buried sewer pipes, gutters, manholes and pits. Unfortunately, the sewer pipe deteriorates with time leading to the collapsing of the pipe with traffic disruption or clogging of the pipe causing flooding and environmental pollution. Thus, the management and maintenance of the buried pipes are important tasks that require information about the changes of the current and future sewer pipes conditions. In this research, the study was carried on in Baghdad, Iraq and two deteriorations model's multinomial logistic regression and neural network deterioration model NNDM are used to predict sewers future conditions. The results of the
... Show MoreThe Iraqi construction industry suffers from many issues that lead to many design errors, clashes, delays and cost overruns. Therefore, applying constructability will prevent these issues from happening, as it has proven its positive effect in different projects around the world. The goal of this paper is to use building information modelling (BIM) to assess the constructability, provide the opportunities for the project stakeholders to choose the best constructable design alternative and find the affection of applying constructability on project cost. The practical side of this research consists of two parts: in the first part, 37 factors are collected from the literature review as factors that effect on constructability. After tha
... Show MoreArcHydro is a model developed for building hydrologic information systems to synthesize geospatial and temporal water resources data that support hydrologic modeling and analysis. Raster-based digital elevation models (DEMs) play an important role in distributed hydrologic modeling supported by geographic information systems (GIS). Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data have been used to derive hydrological features, which serve as inputs to various models. Currently, elevation data are available from several major sources and at different spatial resolutions. Detailed delineation of drainage networks is the first step for many natural resource management studies. Compared with interpretation from aerial photographs or topographic maps, auto
... Show MoreThe aim of present work is to improve mechanical and fatigue properties for Aluminum alloy7049 by using Nano composites technique. The ZrO2 with an average grain diameter of 30-40 nm, was selected as Nano particles, to reinforce Aluminum alloy7049 with different percentage as, 2, 4, 6 and 7 %. The Stir casting method was used to fabricate the Nano composites materials due to economical route for improvement and processing of metal matrix composites. The experimental results were shown that the adding of zirconium oxide (ZrO2) as reinforced material leads to improve mechanical properties. The best percentage of improvement of mechanical properties of 7049 AA was with 4% wt. of ZrO2 about (7.76% ) for ultim
... Show MoreThe importance of Baghdad city as the capital of Iraq and the center of the attention of delegations because of its long history is essential to preserve its environment. This is achieved through the integrated management of municipal solid waste since this is only possible by knowing the quantities produced by the population on a daily basis. This study focused to predicate the amount of municipal solid waste generated in Karkh and Rusafa separately, in addition to the quantity produced in Baghdad, using IBM SPSS 23 software. Results that showed the average generation rates of domestic solid waste in Rusafa side was higher than that of Al-Karkh side because Rusafa side has higher population density than Al-Karkh side. T
... Show MoreThe purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of corrosive environment (corrosive ferric chloride of 1, 2, 5, 6% wt. at room temperature), immersion period of (48, 72, 96, 120, 144 hours), and surface roughness on pitting corrosion characteristics and use the data to build an artificial neural network and test its ability to predict the depth and intensity of pitting corrosion in a variety of conditions. Pit density and depth were calculated using a pitting corrosion test on carbon steel (C-4130). Pitting corrosion experimental tests were used to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models for predicting pitting corrosion characteristics. It was found that artificial neural network models were shown to be
... Show MoreCancer stem cells (CSCs) are defined as a population of cells present in tumours, which can undergo self-renewal and differentiation. Identification and isolation of these CSCs using putative surface markers have been a priority of research in cancer. With this background we selected pancreatic normal and tumor cells for this study and passaged them into animal tissue culture medium. Further staining was done using alkaline phosphatase and heamatoxilin staining. Blue to purple colored zones in undifferentiated pluripotent stem cells and clear coloration in the chromatin material indicated pancreatic cells. Further studies on the cell surface marker CD 44 were done using ELISA. For this, the protein was extracted from cultivated normal and t
... Show MoreWater quality assessment offers a scientific basis for water resource development and management. This research aims to assessment of Al-Rustamiya sewage treatment plant depending on annually changes and produces maps that declare changes on parameter during a period (2015-2018). Based on prior Government Department Baghdad Environment data which annually feature changes for samples from Northern Rustamiya have been estimated as a working model. Drawn a map of the Diyala River shows annual changes in the characteristics of the Diyala River, based on northern and southern Rustamiya effluent samples, and Diyala River samples. The characteristics that research focused on were biochemical