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Forecasting enhancement using a hodrick-prescott filter
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: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 02 2012
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Estimation of the Rock Mechanical Properties Using Conventional Log Data in North Rumaila Field
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Hydrocarbon production might cause changes in dynamic reservoir properties. Thus the consideration of the mechanical stability of a formation under different conditions of drilling or production is a very important issue, and basic mechanical properties of the formation should be determined. There is considerable evidence, gathered from laboratory measurements in the field of Rock Mechanics, showing a good correlation between intrinsic rock strength and the dynamic elastic constant determined from sonic-velocity and density measurements. The values of the mechanical properties determined from log data, such as the dynamic elastic constants derived from the measurement of the elastic wave velocities in the material, should be more accurate t

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 17 2019
Journal Name
Biochemical & Cellular Archives
EVALUATION OF THE POTASSIUM AVAILABILITY IN THE SALINE SOILS USING THE TRADITIONAL CHEMICAL CRITERION
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Publication Date
Wed Apr 30 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Calculating the Variation of the Universal Parameter (Variable) Using Kepler's Equation for Different Orbits
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Stumpff functions are an infinite series that depends on the value of z. This value results from multiplying the reciprocal semi-major axis with a universal anomaly. The purpose from those functions is to calculate the variation of the universal parameter (variable) using Kepler's equation for different orbits. In this paper, each range for the reciprocal of the semi-major axis, universal anomaly, and z is calculated in order to study the behavior of Stumpff functions C(z) and S(z). The results showed that when z grew, Stumpff functions for hyperbola, parabola, and elliptical orbits were also growing. They intersected and had a tendency towards zero for both hyperbola and parabola orbits, but for elliptical orbits, Stumpff functions

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2020
Journal Name
Conference
Study the Response Of The Wind Turbine System under Realistic Working Conditions Using Simulink
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Abstract<p>In recent years, there has been a very rapid development in the field of clean energy due to the huge increase in the demand, which prompted the manufacturers and the designers to increase the efficiency and operating life of the energy systems and especially for wind turbine. It can be considered that the control unit is the main key of the wind turbines. Consequently, it’s essential to understanding the working principle of this unit and spotlight on the factors which influence significantly on the performance of wind turbine system. Simulink technique is proposed to find the response of the wind turbine system under different working conditions. In this paper, it was investigated</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Optical, Structural, Morphological Properties of Chromium (III) Oxide Nanostructure Synthesized Using Spray Pyrolysis Technique
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Nanostructure of chromium oxide (Cr2O3-NPs) with rhombohedral structure were successfully prepared by spray pyrolysis technique using Aqueous solution of Chromium (III) chloride CrCl3 as solution. The films were deposited on glass substrates heated to 450°C using X-ray diffraction (XRD) shows the nature of polycrystalline samples. The calculated lattice constant value for the grown Cr2O3 nanostructures is a = b = 4.959 Å & c = 13.594 Å and the average crystallize size (46.3-55.6) nm calculated from diffraction peaks, Spectral analysis revealed FTIR peak characteristic vibrations of Cr-O Extended and Two sharp peaks present at 630 and 578 cm-1 attributed to Cr-O “stretching

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Study the Effect of Using Microwave Radiation and H-Donors on Improving Heavy Oil
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The present research has investigated the effect of microwave energy on improving the flow properties of heavy crude oil. The fragmentation of crude oil molecules was carried out with and without using 1 and 10 wt. % concentration of various types of H-donors like tetralin, cyclohexane, and naphtha.  Microwave power of 320, 385, and 540 W and radiation time 1-9 min, and temperature were studied. The kinematic viscosity and asphaltene content were measured for evaluation the improving of heavy crude oil.

   Results show that viscosity of crude oil decreased with increase H-donor concentration, a maximum percentage of viscosity reduction was10.63 % for tetralin at 6 min radiation time, while 8.67%, and 7.34% for cycl

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 13 2012
Journal Name
Kut Journal For Economic And Administrative Sciences
Using Different Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Probability Death Density Function with Application
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In this paper, the maximum likelihood estimates for parameter ( ) of two parameter's Weibull are studied, as well as white estimators and (Bain & Antle) estimators, also Bayes estimator for scale parameter ( ), the simulation procedures are used to find the estimators and comparing between them using MSE. Also the application is done on the data for 20 patients suffering from a headache disease.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Analysis the Surface Morphology of the Porous Media by using Atomic Force Microscope technique
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An atomic force microscope (AFM) technique is utilized to investigate the polystyrene (PS) impact upon the morphological properties of the outer as well as inner surface of poly vinyl chloride (PVC) porous fibers. Noticeable a new shape of the nodules at the outer and inner surfaces, namely "Crater nodules", has been observed. The fibers surface images have seen to be regular nodular texture at the skin of the inner and outer surfaces at low PS content. At PS content of 6 wt.%, the nodules structure was varied from Crater shape to stripe. While with increasing of PS content, the pore density reduces as a result of increasing the size of the pore at the fiber surface. Moreover, the test of 3D-AFM images shows that the roughness of both su

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Studying the ability of transformation of lymphocytes by using PHA in patient with Cytomegalovirus
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Blood samples were collected from (31) pregnant women infected with cytomegalovirus , also (15) blood samples were collected from congenitally infected infants, and (20),(15),(15) blood samples were collected from pregnant women ,non pregnant and infants, respectively, all of them were as control groups. CMV infection identified by using ELISA assay to detect specific CMV IgM & IgG in sera. The results of lymphocyte transformation showed a significant decrease when phytoheamagglutinin (PHA) used as stimulator, lymphocytes response in infected pregnant women was lower than that of non infected pregnant women as well as non pregnant women. Result also showed a significant decrease in the ability of lymphocyte division in healthy pregnant w

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Eatimation Availability Function Through Determination The Optimal Imperfect Preventive Maintenance Period By using Simulation
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This paper deals with the modeling of a preventive maintenance strategy applied to a single-unit system subject to random failures.

According to this policy, the system is subjected to imperfect periodic preventive maintenance restoring it to ‘as good as new’ with probability

p and leaving it at state ‘as bad as old’ with probability q. Imperfect repairs are performed following failures occurring between consecutive

preventive maintenance actions, i.e the times between failures follow a decreasing quasi-renewal process with parameter a. Considering the

average durations of the preventive and corrective maintenance actions a

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