: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.
In this paper has been one study of autoregressive generalized conditional heteroscedasticity models existence of the seasonal component, for the purpose applied to the daily financial data at high frequency is characterized by Heteroscedasticity seasonal conditional, it has been depending on Multiplicative seasonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models Which is symbolized by the Acronym (SGARCH) , which has proven effective expression of seasonal phenomenon as opposed to the usual GARCH models. The summarizing of the research work studying the daily data for the price of the dinar exchange rate against the dollar, has been used autocorrelation function to detect seasonal first, then was diagnosed wi
... Show MoreRainfall in Nigeria is highly dynamic and variable on a temporal and spatial scale. This has taken a more pronounced dimension due to climate change. In this study, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Mann-Kendall test statistical tools were employed to analyze rainfall trends and patterns in Gombe metropolis between 1990 and 2020 and the ARIMA model was used for making the forecast for ten (10) years. Daily rainfall data of 31 years obtained from Nigerian Meteorological Agency, (NIMET) was used for the study. The daily rainfall data was subjected to several analyses. Standard precipitation index showed that alternation of wet and dry period conditions had been witnessed in the study area. The result obtained showed that there is an u
... Show MoreIn this paper, variable gain nonlinear PD and PI fuzzy logic controllers are designed and the effect of the variable gain characteristic of these controllers is analyzed to show its contribution in enhancing the performance of the closed loop system over a conventional linear PID controller. Simulation results and time domain performance characteristics show how these fuzzy controllers outperform the conventional PID controller when used to control a nonlinear plant and a plant that has time delay.
In this paper, variable gain nonlinear PD and PI fuzzy logic controllers are designed and the effect of the variable gain characteristic of these controllers is analyzed to show its contribution in enhancing the performance of the closed loop system over a conventional linear PID controller. Simulation results and time domain performance characteristics show how these fuzzy controllers outperform the conventional PID controller when used to control a nonlinear plant and a plant that has time delay.
The she/teacher is considered one of the basics of the educational process for its essential role in education and teaching the kindergarten child, thus its lack to construct social relations in side the kindergarten environment working in it regarded one of the shortcoming factors she is suffering from which should be manipulated, because it could effect its enthusiasm to work in the kindergarten according to what has mentioned, the researcher presents the following objective:-
- Identifying level of social enhancement for the kindergarten teachers via the test of the following hypothesis:-
Low-intensity laser irradiation has been explored as an alternative, non-invasive method to encourage chronic wounds to heal. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of low level laser therapy (biostimulation) using semiconductor diode laser with wavelength (785 nm) on the enhancement of chronic wound healing. Fifty patients with chronic wounds were selected to be treated with Low Level Laser Therapy. Their ages ranged between 1 to 76 years. The wound sites were distributed in the lower limb, upper limb, trunk , perineum and head (70%,14%,12%,2%,2%, respectively). Application of laser therapy by noncontact method few millimeters from the skin for 15 minutes per one session twice weekly for two months ; ie,16 sessions for each patient. R
... Show MoreAceclofenac (AC) is an orally active phenyl acetic acid derivative, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug with exceptional anti-inflammatory, analgesic and antipyretic properties. It has low aqueous solubility, leading to slow dissolution, low permeability and inadequate bioavailability. The aim of the current study was to prepare and characterize AC-NS-based gel to enhance the dissolution rate and then percutaneous permeability. NS.s were prepared using solvent/antisovent precipitation method at different drug to polymer ratios (1:1, 1:2, and 1:3) using different polymers such as poly vinyl pyrrolidone (PVP-K25), hydroxy propyl methyl cellulose (HPMC-E5) and poloxamer® (388) as stabilizer
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