Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
(12)
Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2025
Journal Name
المجلة العراقية للعلوم الاقتصادية
Using the Hybrid ARDL–GRU Model in Investigating the Dynamic Relationship between Dinar Deposits and US Dollar Payments at the Central Bank of Iraq
Central Bank of Iraq
Dinar Deposits
US Dollar Payments
Time Series Analysis
Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
GRU Neural Network
Hybrid ARDL–GRU Model
This research examines the relationship between dinar deposits and U.S. dollar payments at the Central Bank of Iraq using monthly data for the period 2016–2025. The ARDL model, the GRU neural network, and a hybrid ARDL–GRU model are applied. The results show that dollar payments are stationary at level, while dinar deposits become stationary after first differencing, with a significant positive long-run cointegrating relationship. The linear ARDL model has limited ability to capture sudden shocks, whereas the hybrid ARDL–GRU model achieves superior forecasting performance both in-sample and out-of-sample. The findings confirm the Central Bank of Iraq’s efficiency in managing domestic and foreign liquidity and maintaining market stab
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