The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Many studies have focused on identifying and classifying freshwater fishes in Iraq, concerned with describing, organizing, and drawing up a list of freshwater fishes in Iraq or the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Within the most recent updates at the beginning of 2023, 53 native freshwater and 20 exotic (alien or introduced) fish species are recorded and described. This study reviewed the database of morphology and molecular studies of freshwater fish in Iraq and reported species while surveying the fish fauna at different water bodies of the country from 2010 to the beginning of 2023. In conclusion, 29 species (about 40.3%) of all 72 fish species in Iraq still need to be available information on their molecular data.
This study focuses on the relative frequency of Streptococcus pneumoniae in children with culture-proven bacterial meningitis. The epidemiology has been investigated with clinical and laboratory findings in The Central Public Health Laboratory, Iraq from April to September, 2010. From (138) samples , (55) cases (39.85 %) were diagnosed by physician as bacterial meningitis, (23) cases (16.66 %) as viral menginitis , (18) cases (13.04 %) as different medical cases (e.g febrile convulsion , meningoencephalitis , epilepsy …etc) and (42) cases (30.43 %) as unidentified medical cases. For bacterial meningitis S.pneumoniae was isolated from (10) cases (18.18 %) only. The median age for bacterial meningitis was (130.75) month and the predomina
... Show MoreThis study presents a comprehensive list of the freshwater and marine bivalves distributed in Iraq. A total of 51 species were recorded, and distributed as: 14 freshwater species, and 37 marine species, these species belonging to 25 families, all available remarks on the distribution, taxonomy, and nomenclature of these species were given. This study included the recently collected specimens along with those previously studied and recorded in Iraq.
Objective: To examined the common frequency of cervical cancer in Iraqi women. Study Design: Descriptive study Place and Duration of Study: This study was conducted at the Iraqi Cancer Agency and the Cancer Registry data from the Iraqi Ministry of Health provided assistance in data gathering from 1st April 2020 to 31st December 2021. Methods: The study examined 504 women diagnosed with cervical cancer. Their ages ranged from 20 to over 80 years. The data analysis employed descriptive statistics to determine the frequency, proportion, and incidence of cervical cancer. Results: The cervical cancer was predominantly caused by human papillomavirus in women in 2020 (1.29%) and 2021 (2.1%). In 2020, the number of cases of cervical can
... Show MoreDuring the syrvey on natural enemies of whiteflies in Iraq, the following. predators were recorded.
The research aims to measure the efficiency of health services Quality in the province of Karbala, using the Data Envelopment analysis Models in ( 2006). According to these models the degree of efficiency ranging between zero and unity. We estimate Scale efficiency for two types of orientation direction, which are input and output oriented direction.
The results showed, according Input-oriented efficiency that the levels of Scale efficiency on average is ( 0.975), in the province of Karbala. While the index of Output-oriented efficiency on average is (o.946).
In the lifetime process in some systems, most data cannot belong to one single population. In fact, it can represent several subpopulations. In such a case, the known distribution cannot be used to model data. Instead, a mixture of distribution is used to modulate the data and classify them into several subgroups. The mixture of Rayleigh distribution is best to be used with the lifetime process. This paper aims to infer model parameters by the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm through the maximum likelihood function. The technique is applied to simulated data by following several scenarios. The accuracy of estimation has been examined by the average mean square error (AMSE) and the average classification success rate (ACSR). T
... Show MorePhytoplankton community is a model for of monitoring aquatic systems and interpreting the environmental change in aquatic systems. The present study aimed to forecast environmental parameters that drive the change of phytoplankton community structure in the lake. The present study was carried out in Baghdad Tourist Island Lake (BTIL) for the period From October 2021 to May 2022. The study included the quality and quantity of phytoplankton, moreover, the highest and lowest value of the physical and chemical parameters were (Water temperature (13-30 °C), Light penetration (94-275cm), electric conductivity (837-1128 µS/cm), salinity (0.5-0.7 ‰), pH (7-8.2), total alkalinity (126-226 mg CaCO3/L), total Hardness (297-395 mg CaCO3/L
... Show MoreThe research aims to develop a proposed mechanism for financial reporting on sustainable investment that takes the specificity of these investments.
To achieve this goal, the researcher used (what if scenario) where the future financial statements were prepared for the year 2026, after completion of the sustainable project and operation, as the project requires four years to be completed.
The researcher relied on the results of the researchers collected from various modern sources relevant to the research topic and published on the internet, and the financial data and information obtained to assess the reality of the company's activity and its environmental, social, and economic i
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