The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
الاستثمار الاجنبي المباشر في العراق ودوره في تحقيق التنمية الاقتصادية
This investigation pertains to the evaluation of water quality in SAWA Lake, located in the Al-Muthanna province of Southern Iraq, from 1977 to 2020. Understanding the water quality and assessments of this Lake is of great importance. The Lake is home to small, transparent, blind fish measuring approximately 10 cm and is often referred to as the "wonderful" or "strange" Lake due to its many unique features. The study focuses on several elements to represent water quality, including total dissolved solids (TDS), electrical conductivity (EC), pH, and temperature (T), which were measured directly in the field. Additionally, scientific concepts such as K+, Ca2+, Cl-, HCO
Research on the role of organizational change in easing the organizational conflict focuses for being one of the important topics and relatively modern and which have a significant impact on the future of organizations, so this study was to identify the relationship and the impact of organizational change and of deportation (technological, organizational structure, human resources, the change in the task) at the organizational conflict in the Earth company link Iraq, in order to reach the goals of the research, it has been the development of a questionnaire distributed to a random sample of (100) composed employees from managers and heads of departments and the people and staff at the Earth company link Iraq, the study found: the
... Show MoreBackground: Diabetes is a metabolic disorder characterized by chronic hyperglycemia due to an inability to produce insulin. Uncontrolled or poorly controlled diabetes is clinically associated with increased susceptibility to delay healing. Many recent researches have shown that stem cell therapy can be the best choice for treatment of this disease. The aims of this research were investigating regeneration of pancreatic beta cells of diabetic induced rabbits after stem cell transplantation. Materials and Methods: 64 rabbits weighting an average of (2.5 - 3 kg) were used in this experimental study, and divided into 4 groups as follows; group A ( contains 16 healthy rabbits regarded as control group ) , Group B ( contains 16 diabetic rabbits
... Show MoreDrought is a natural phenomenon in many arid, semi-arid, or wet regions. This showed that no region worldwide is excluded from the occurrence of drought. Extreme droughts were caused by global weather warming and climate change. Therefore, it is essential to review the studies conducted on drought to use the recommendations made by the researchers on drought. The drought was classified into meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and economic-social. In addition, researchers described the severity of the drought by using various indices which required different input data. The indices used by various researchers were the Joint Deficit Index (JDI), Effective Drought Index (EDI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), Sta
... Show MoreThere are many ways to communicate a story, one can tell it, sing it, act it, write it, film it and can draw it. Each form of storytelling has its unique characteristics that separate it from the other forms. These distinguishing characteristics of each form does not indicate the superiority of one form over the other, on the contrary, it indicates the human ability to be creative on many levels. As students of literature, only the written form of a story is taken into account. One reason for the negligence of other forms of storytelling might be that singing and filming a story is not related to literature. But there has been a form of storytelling that uses words along with pictures which eventually became a genre of novels called grap
... Show MoreA revised checklist of the robber fly genera (Diptera, Asilidae) was given during this study in Iraq. The investigation showed (21) genera belonging to seven subfamilies, two genera new recorded to entomofauna of Iraq (Promachus Loew, 1848 and Genus: Dysmacus Loew, 1860). Eight genera showed in this investigation and eleven genera were recorded previously to Iraq.
Government spending is the tool that the state uses to achieve its various goals. The research aims to identify the most important determinants of government spending in Iraq and to indicate the type and nature of the relationship between government spending and its determinants, which will contribute to understanding the movement of government spending. The results of the co-integration test using the border test methodology showed that the variables of population growth and oil prices have a long-term effect on government spending while inflation is not significant in the long run, and that 47% of the equilibrium imbalance (short-term imbalance) in government spending in the previous period (t-) can be corrected in the current period (t)
... Show MoreThe use of ultraviolet rays is one of the methods of treating surface contamination of many foods especially pickles. however, there are some side effects to its use, especially in high percentage oil food products, it is necessary to determine the appropriate doses and time periods to avoid deterioration of its oil physicochemical characteristics. this study was conducted to see the effect of ultraviolet rays 15W on some chemical properties of olive oil when using it to preserve green olive pickles, treated for 5, 10 and 15 min daily. green olive fruits Iraqi variety (al-ashrasi), in season (2020-2021) were pickled using Spanish style, the best time period to pr
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