The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
BACKGROUND: Anemia during pregnancy is still a challenge throughout the world, and it may cause severe health consequences in the maternal and fetal sides. AIM: This study aims to find out the prevalence of maternal anemia and potential adverse outcomes in Iraq. METHODS: In Medical City Tertiary Center in Baghdad, singleton pregnant ladies came for delivery were involved over 6 months’ period. Based on hemoglobin (Hb) readings; they were divided into no anemia group (Hb>11 g/l) and anemia group which were further subdivided into mild, moderate, and severe (Hb =10–10.9, =7.1–9.9, and <7 g/l, respectively). Full history and examination were performed by attending obstetrician and pediatrician for the upcoming babies. RE
... Show MorePhysicians are infrequently selected to serve in the yearlong role of Jefferson Science Fellow (JSF) as senior science advisor for the US Department of State or the United States Agency for International Development. The authors discuss the role of a JSF in promoting “science diplomacy” from the perspective of one alumnus, who sites examples of ongoing, long-term collaborative projects including one focusing on medical education reform in Iraq that would not have been possible without the JSF program. More than 3 decades of political and social unrest, terrorism, the internal displacement of millions of Iraqi citizens, the arrival of Syrian refugees, international sanctions, and the effect of fluctuating oil prices that fund education i
... Show MoreThe research aims to shed light on the importance of Natural gas as a National wealth is not being used optimally to be a financial resource is important to Iraq in addition to Oil, as well as could be used as an important Source of Energy, instead of burning gas is a waste of wealth and Contribute to the contamination of the environment. Research Reviews the importance of Natural gas, where is currently about a quarter of global energy consumption. Then deals with the reality of the gas industry in Iraq and winning because of the volume of waste incineration, which reached a rate (45%) of the gas Associated with oil, where Iraq is fourth globally in Terms of the amount of gas Burned. Finally, this paper discusses the future of n
... Show MoreThe policy issue in all countries of the world is concerned with government and research because it has the ability to reveal many of the problems facing the state and its organizational and scientific capabilities in the development of solutions and appropriate treatments that go beyond random and improvisational reactions, As a result of this interest, many studies have attempted to conceptualize and academicism it. The concept of public policy has been linked to various aspects of social life such as social, economic, educational, agricultural or other aspects. Public policy, regardless of its meaning or its relation to aspects of life, refers to the systematic thinking that directs the behavior and actions of the state, organization
... Show MoreThe concept of privatization is built on the basis of the transfer of assets and services of the public sector to the private sector this concept has appeared in the eighties of the last century whene the high oil prices took place and recession solution swept the world Which called for the freedom of the market and left the room for the private sector to take the initiatine in economic activity. Both the IMF have adopted this thesis in their programs of the structural adjustment in light of external and internal factors helped to Create the conditions to accept thesis that under the pretext of achieving a number of economic goals.
In Iraq in spite of
... Show MoreKhadija Al-Hadithi was known for her love of the Arabic language. She was a distinguished and serious phenomenon in Arabic science and culture. She was born in Basra Governorate, one of the ancient and important cities in the history of Arabic grammar and one of the centers of the intellectual and scientific movement. The Basra Grammar School emerged there and made numerous achievements in the field of Arabic linguistics that remain an important source for students of the specialty.
Abstract:
The achievement of agricultural development provide food security and to form a basis for economic growth and comprehensive social, requires a number of actions to overcome the obstacles and problems facing the development of this economic sector, to make it able to achieve food security and operation of the workforce, and reduce dependence on the outside in the provision of food peripherals, and so it is only available through the highest degree of efficiency and economic mobilization of resources, so most of the developed and developing countries alike seek to achieve sustainable agricultural development tobacco meet the food requirements and good jobs for c
... Show MoreBACKGROUND: Anemia during pregnancy is still a challenge throughout the world, and it may cause severe health consequences in the maternal and fetal sides. AIM: This study aims to find out the prevalence of maternal anemia and potential adverse outcomes in Iraq. METHODS: In Medical City Tertiary Center in Baghdad, singleton pregnant ladies came for delivery were involved over 6 months’ period. Based on hemoglobin (Hb) readings; they were divided into no anemia group (Hb>11 g/l) and anemia group which were further subdivided into mild, moderate, and severe (Hb =10–10.9, =7.1–9.9, and <7 g/l, respectively). Full history and examination were performed by attending obstetrician and pediatrician for the upcoming b
... Show MoreAbstract
This research attempt to explain the essential aspects of one important model in management of Bank risks , that is (stress testing) , which increase the concentrate on it resulting the negative affects of Global financial crisis that it accuar in 2008 to study the application possibilities in iraqian banks to enhancing the safety and financial soundness Becuase the classical tools in Risk management don’t give clear image on Banks ability in facing risks, hence the Basel committee on Banking supervision focusing in agreement of Basel 2,3 on stress testing when it doing the internal capital adequacy assessment process (ICAAP) .
To achieving the reseach obje
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