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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 08 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Computational Design And Engineering
Twisted-fin parametric study to enhance the solidification performance of phase-change material in a shell-and-tube latent heat thermal energy storage system
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Abstract<p>Phase change material (PCM) is considered as one of the most effective thermal energy storage (TES) systems to balance energy supply and demand. A key challenge in designing efficient PCM-based TES systems lies in the enhancement of heat transmission during phase transition. This study numerically examines the privilege of employing twisted-fin arrays inside a shell-and-tube latent heat storage unit to improve the solidification performance. The presence of twisted fins contributes to the dominating role of heat conduction by their curved shapes, which restricts the role of natural convection but largely aids the overall heat-transfer process during solidification. The heat-discharge </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri May 10 2019
Journal Name
Research Journal Of Chemistry And Environment
Solid Phase Extraction of Theophylline in Aqueous Solutions by Modified Magnetic Iron Oxide Nanoparticles as an Extractor Material and Spectrophotometry Technique for the Determination
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new, simple and fast solid-phase extraction method for separation and preconcentration of trace theophylline in aqueous solutions was developed using magnetite nanoparticles (MIONPs) coated with aluminium oxide (AMIONPs) and modified with palmitate (P) as an extractor (P@AMIONPs). It has shown that the developed method has a fast absorbent rate of the theophylline at room temperature. The parameters that affect the absorbent of theophylline in the aqueous solutions have been investigated such as the amount of magnetite nanoparticle, pH, standing time and the volume, concentration of desorption solution. The linear range, limit of quantification (LOQ) and limit of detection (LOD) for the determination of theophylline were 0.05-2.450 μg mL-

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 12 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
An Evaluation of Corrosion Pits in Esthetic Coated Stainless Steel Orthodontic Archwires in Dry and Wet Environment at Different Intervals (An In Vitro Study)
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Background: The demand for esthetic orthodontic appliances is increasing; so the esthetic orthodontic archwires were introduced. Among them, Teflon and Epoxy coated stainless steel archwires. The amount of force available from the archwire depends on the structural properties and susceptibility to corrosion. All metallic alloys are changed during immersion in artificial saliva, chlorhexidine mouthwash andtoothpaste, but their behaviors differ from one type to another. They corrode at different rates, which lead to decrease the amount of force applied to the teeth. This in vitro study was designed to evaluate the corrosion pits in stainless steel archwires coated with Teflon and with Epoxy in dry and after immersion in artificial saliva, chl

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
In Vitro the Effect of Canals Instrumented with Three Rotary Ni-Ti Systems on the Dislocation Resistanceo Guttafusion ® versus Single Cone Obturation Technique
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Background: Complete seal of the root canal system following its chemo-mechanical debridement plays a pivotal role for achieving successful endodontic treatment. This can be established by reducing the gaps between the core filling material and root canal wall. Aim: To assess and compare the dislocation resistance of root canals obturated with GuttaFusion® and TotalFill BC sealer versus single cone obturation technique and TotalFill BC sealer after instrumentation of the canals with WaveOne, ProTaper Next and ProTaper Universal system. Material and Method: Sixty extracted human permanent mandibular premolars were conducted in the current study. The teeth were decorated and left the root with 15mm length; the roots were divided randomly i

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Calculation of the partical distribution function g(r12,r1) for Carbon Ion cases (C+2,C+3,C+4) in the position space
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The aim of this work is study the partical distribution function g(r12,r1) for Carbon ion cases (C+2,C+3,C+4) in the position space using Hartree-Fock's Wave function, and the partitioning technique for each shell which is represented by Carbon Ions [C+2 (1s22s2)], [C+3 (1s22s)] and [C+4 (1s2)]. A comparision has been made among the three Carbon ions for each shell. A computer programs (MATHCAD ver. 2001i) has been used texcute the results.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 27 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Isolation, Structural Characterization and Identification of Major Constituents in Ephedra foliata Naturally Growing in Iraq by TLC, GC-MS and UPLC-ESI-MS/MS
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Abstract:

   The aerial part of Ephedra foliata Family Ephedraceae have long been used in traditional medicine and now Ephedra species have medicinal, ecological, and commercial value. The variety of pharmacological actions of this plant is due to its chemical constituents. Ephedrine and
related alkaloids; are the newly potential medicinal value of Ephedra supplements for weight loss or performance improvement. Other pharmacological actions like antibacterial and antifungal effects of the phenolic acid compounds, the immunosuppressive action of the polysaccharides, and the antitumor action of flavonoids. The genus of this plant wildly distributed t

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 04 2016
Journal Name
European Journal Of Oral Sciences
Experimental polyethylene-hydroxyapatite carrier-based endodontic system: an in vitro study on dynamic thermomechanical properties, sealing ability, and measurements of micro-computed tomography voids
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The dynamic thermomechanical properties, sealing ability, and voids formation of an experimental obturation hydroxyapatite-reinforced polyethylene (HA/PE) composite/carrier system were investigated and compared with those of a commercial system [GuttaCore (GC)]. The HA/PE system was specifically designed using a melt-extrusion process. The viscoelastic properties of HA/PE were determined using a dynamic thermomechanical analyser. Human single-rooted teeth were endodontically instrumented and obturated using HA/PE or GC systems, and then sealing ability was assessed using a fluid filtration system. In addition, micro-computed tomography (μCT) was used to quantify apparent voids within the root-canal space. The data were statistically analys

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2012
Journal Name
Natural Science
Determination of threshold random gain medium in dye: Polymer films containing TiO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; nanoparticles
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Publication Date
Sun Nov 19 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Effects of Diode Laser 940 nm with and without 5 % Sodium Fluoride White Varnish with Tri-calcium Phosphate on Dentin Permeability (In vitro study)
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It is found that hypersensitive teeth have a larger number and wider patent tubules than those of non-sensitive teeth. Objective: The aim of this study is to compare between the effects of diode laser at different power densities, with and without sodium fluoride on the sealing of exposed dentinal tubules and dentin permeability. Materials and methods: 118 teeth were used. Samples were divided into three major groups. The first consisted of 100 teeth used for permeability test. The second consisted of 16 teeth for measuring external surface temperature elevation while irradiation. The third, in turn, consisted of one pair of teeth observed under SEM for dentine surface morphology analysis. Results: For dentin permeability measurement, th

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2025
Journal Name
Open Veterinary Journal
&lt;b&gt;Molecular study of &lt;i&gt;Streptococcus equi&lt;/i&gt; isolated from horses with strangles in Iraq&lt;/b&gt;
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Background: Strangles is a highly contagious equine respiratory disease caused by Streptococcus equi subsp. equi. It is a globally significant pathogen and one of the most common infectious agents in horses. In Iraq, no sequencing data on this pathogen are available, and only two molecular studies have been published to date. This study provides preliminary insights into strain diversity and provides a foundation for future large-scale investigations. Aim: This study aimed to investigate the molecular characteristics, identify SeM gene alleles, and perform a phylogenetic analysis of S. equi isolates from horses in Baghdad, Iraq. Methods: We analyzed 59 Streptococcus spp. isolates previously obtained from equine clinical sample

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