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OPTIMIZATION OF FUZZY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION-BASED FARDL MODELS FOR ENGINEERING APPLICATIONS: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF LINEAR AND QUADRATIC ESTIMATORS VIA PARALLEL MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS
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Today's smart engineering systems are often faced with situations that are structurally uncertain, informationally incomplete, and non-probabilistically ambiguous, especially for electrical systems. ARDL models are limited in applications in complex computational environments where the uncertainty is due to vagueness, not randomness, and assume the exact parametric representation of the models and the structure of the stochastic uncertainty. This study proposes a new soft-computing paradigm using Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) models and compares the performance of the Linear Programming (LP) and Quadratic Programming (QP) estimation algorithms using large-scale parallel Monte Carlo simulations to overcome these drawbacks as well as fuzzy differential equations, especialy for electrical circuits and machines. In contrast to the previous works that mainly adopted the symmetric triangular fuzzy coefficients without any theoretical considerations, the proposed framework provides a mathematical foundation for fuzzy membership selection and examines the robustness of the estimators under symmetric triangular, asymmetric triangular, and trapezoidal fuzzy topologies. To evaluate the performance of the system, a Monte Carlo simulation framework is implemented under six sample sizes (T = 10, 15, 20, 30, 50, 100) and under different levels of structural complexity. The simulation results show that the QP method is always superior to the LP paradigm in terms of the estimation error of the center trajectory and the spread of uncertainty of the parameters in terms of Fuzzy Degree (FD). This is especially true in small sample situations, where the operational advantage is more pronounced, making it particularly useful for systemic modeling in data-sparse situations. Moreover, the proposed framework-based fuzzy differential equation offers a mathematically efficient tool to model mysterious engineering systems like network-based smart grids, control models, communication systems, and cyber-based frameworks. The combination of fuzzy dynamic approaches allows a reliable scheme and uncertainty quantification-based system for complex engineering environmental conditions, whereas deterministic schemes are becoming inadequate.

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 17 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Interdisciplinary Mathematics
Fuzzy preinvexity via ranking value functions with applications to fuzzy optimization problems
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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
monte carlo simulation in the kinetics and mileculare
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The primary focus of the study factor reverse polymerization styrene polymer kinetics and distribution weight Aljaia in Blma Aldhur free reverse The study was conducted wi Mamahakah and using the Monte Carlo method

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Numerical Solution for Linear Fredholm Integro-Differential Equation Using Touchard Polynomials
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A new method based on the Touchard polynomials (TPs) was presented for the numerical solution of the linear Fredholm integro-differential equation (FIDE) of the first order and second kind with condition. The derivative and integration of the (TPs) were simply obtained. The convergence analysis of the presented method was given and the applicability was proved by some numerical examples. The results obtained in this method are compared with other known results.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of Models (NAGARCH & APGARCH) by Using Simulations
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Simulation experiments are a means of solving in many fields, and it is the process of designing a model of the real system in order to follow it and identify its behavior through certain models and formulas written according to a repeating software style with a number of iterations. The aim of this study is to build a model  that deals with the behavior suffering from the state of (heteroskedasticity) by studying the models (APGARCH & NAGARCH) using (Gaussian) and (Non-Gaussian) distributions for different sample sizes (500,1000,1500,2000) through the stage of time series analysis (identification , estimation, diagnostic checking and prediction). The data was generated using the estimations of the parameters resulting f

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Performance Evaluation of Pole Placement and Linear Quadratic Regulator Strategies Designed for Mass-Spring-Damper System Based on Simulated Annealing and Ant Colony Optimization
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This paper investigates the performance evaluation of two state feedback controllers, Pole Placement (PP) and Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR). The two controllers are designed for a Mass-Spring-Damper (MSD) system found in numerous applications to stabilize the MSD system performance and minimize the position tracking error of the system output. The state space model of the MSD system is first developed. Then, two meta-heuristic optimizations, Simulated Annealing (SA) optimization and Ant Colony (AC) optimization are utilized to optimize feedback gains matrix K of the PP and the weighting matrices Q and R of the LQR to make the MSD system reach stabilization and reduce the oscillation of the response. The Matlab softwar

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Food Science And Technology
Analyzing food production risk with Monte Carlo simulation
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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of classical method and optimization methods for estimating parameters in nonlinear ordinary differential equation
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  This study is concerned with the estimation of constant  and time-varying parameters in non-linear ordinary differential equations, which do not have analytical solutions. The estimation is done in a multi-stage method where constant and time-varying parameters are estimated in a straight sequential way from several stages. In the first stage, the model of the differential equations is converted to a regression model that includes the state variables with their derivatives and then the estimation of the state variables and their derivatives in a penalized splines method and compensating the estimations in the regression model. In the second stage, the pseudo- least squares method was used to es

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 20 2016
Journal Name
Sociological Methods & Research
Mean Monte Carlo Finite Difference Method for Random Sampling of a Nonlinear Epidemic System
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In this article, a numerical method integrated with statistical data simulation technique is introduced to solve a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with multiple random variable coefficients. The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with central divided difference formula of finite difference (FD) method is repeated n times to simulate values of the variable coefficients as random sampling instead being limited as real values with respect to time. The mean of the n final solutions via this integrated technique, named in short as mean Monte Carlo finite difference (MMCFD) method, represents the final solution of the system. This method is proposed for the first time to calculate the numerical solution obtained fo

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An Efficient Algorithm for Fuzzy Linear Fractional Programming Problems via Ranking Function
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In many applications such as production, planning, the decision maker is important in optimizing an objective function that has fuzzy ratio two functions which can be handed using fuzzy fractional programming problem technique. A special class of optimization technique named fuzzy fractional programming problem is considered in this work when the coefficients of objective function are fuzzy. New ranking function is proposed and used to convert the data of the fuzzy fractional programming problem from fuzzy number to crisp number so that the shortcoming when treating the original fuzzy problem can be avoided. Here a novel ranking function approach of ordinary fuzzy numbers is adopted for ranking of triangular fuzzy numbers with simpler an

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Publication Date
Tue May 05 2015
Journal Name
International Journal Of Advanced Scientific And Technical Research
Fuzzy Stochastic Probability of The Solution of Single Stationary Non- Homogeneous Linear Fuzzy Random Differential Equations
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