Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Conclusion and results
1. The research concluded through considering the rhetorical visions,
appropriate relationships between utterances with a language derived
from the reality of the social, religious, and, cultural life.
2. The poet compound between realism and the documentation of the
poetic structure, its depth, and the conjugation of its symbolic
metaphors, and also between its phonetic music and the right artistic
nature and the inanimate rules to take in consideration what Dr. Ahmad
Haikal concluded that the tried to com up with something better than
that of the previous generation, but he is still following their orbit, and
their trend method of poem building.
3. The realistic images visionary r

The research aims to identify the most important areas of voluntary work available to women in society, stand on the most important controls that push women to work in voluntary areas in society. The research also seeks to stand on the most prominent obstacles to the voluntary work of women in society. The research contained four main chapters: Chapter I: Definition of research, Chapter 2: Objectives, areas, controls and effects of volunteer work, Chapter 3: Voluntary Work of Women in the Celestial Religions, and lastly, Chapter 4: Theories, Constraints, and Recommendations for Voluntary Work for Women.The researcher suggested several recommendations: 1-establishing a unit responsible for planning,

ABSTRACTBackground : Acne vulgaris is a
common skin disease, affecting more than 85% of
adolescents and often continuing into adulthood.
People between 11 and 30 years of age and up to
5% of older adults. For most patients acne remains
a nuisance with occasional flares of unsightly
comedones, pustules and nodules. For other less
fortunate persons, the sever inflammatory response
to Propionibacterium acnes (P.acnes) results in
permanent
Methods: Disfiguring scars. (1, 2) Stigmata of sever
acne cane lead to social ostracism, withdrawal
from society and severe psychologic
depression (1-4).
Result Pathogenesis of acne Traditionally, acne
has been thought of as a multifactorial disease of
the fo

Abstract

The study aims to identify the reality of knowledge management in decision-making in academic departments from the point of view of faculty members at Blonde University. It also aims to propose mechanisms and suggestions to improve decision-making in the academic departments of the university in light of the management of knowledge. To achieve the objectives of the study, a descriptive method was used, in which a questionnaire consisted of (40) items administered to (137) participants of the faculty members. The results of the study indicated that the reality of the application of knowledge management in the decision-making process showed a high score mean.  There are no statistically significant d

         The objective of this research is to determine the relationship between the performance evaluation process and the training programs for the employees, to identify the extent of the organization's commitment to perform the performance evaluation process for its employees and to use the results of this process in determining the appropriate training programs. Performance evaluation, functional analysis, evaluation method used, dependent variable (training programs) and its dimensions, type of programs, program objectives, program curriculum, And the application of the field research methodology and the questionnaire, which included 146 individuals to know their views and analyz

                     Crises affect the economic growth of the country in general and the banking sector in particular. Given the importance of this sector, it is necessary to evaluate the performance of banks from time to time and monitor the liquidity of each bank and how to organize its management to overcome any crisis or emergency situation that may befall it. The research seeks to diagnose the level of impact of crisis management. In the liquidity of Iraqi private banks, using liquidity indicators, as the research community represents the banks listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange As for the research sample, it is represented by (10) pri

Breast cancer is the commonest cause of cancer related death in women worldwide. Amplification or over-expression of the ERBB2 (HER/neu) gene occurs in approximately 15-30% of breast cancer cases and it is strongly associated with an increased disease recurrence and a poor prognosis. Determination of HER2/neu status is crucial in the treatment plan as that positive cases will respond to trastuzumab therapy. It has been used to test for HER2/neu by immunohistochemistry as a first step and then to study only the equivocal positive cases (score 2+) by in situ hybridization technique. The aim of our study is to compare between immunohistochemistry and silver in situ hybridization (SISH) in assessment of human epidermal growth factor (HER2/neu)