Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Las diferencias entre el pretérito perfecto simple y el imperfecto son uno de los temas más complejos de la lengua española, no sólo para el estudiante, sino para el profesor, puesto que sistematizar los casos y hacerlos fácilmente comprensibles al alumno es tarea difícil. Los profesores de lengua, cuyas investigaciones han dado lugar a una serie de teorías y de corrientes metodológicas y didácticas que permiten enfocar la enseñanza de una lengua extranjera de manera muy distinta a como se hacía tradicionalmente. Vamos a repasar muy brevemente cuáles son estas teorías.

En primer lugar es necesario señalar en qué consiste el aprendizaje de una segunda lengua:

"El aprendizaje de una segunda lengua (L2) es el

يهدف هذا العمل الى بيان طبيعة العلاقة بين الادارة بالتجوال والتجديد الاستراتيجي ، ومدى تأثير المتغير المستقل في المتغير التابع. تضمنت فقرات الاستبانة بوصفه الأداة الرئيسة لجمع البيانات ثلاث جوانب اساسية، تضمن الاول البيانات الشخصية للمستجيبين، فيما تضمن الجانب الثاني الفقرات الخاصة بمتغير الادارة بالتجوال من خلال خمسة ابعاد، فيما اشتمل الجانب الثالث على فقرات التجديد الاستراتيجي عبر تناول اربعة ابعاد. ي

Organizations adopt a number of procedures and instructions in their field of activities in order to aid their resources development   and energies to serve their entrepreneurial orientations. This calls for preparing a range of mechanisms to mitigate the strictness and complexity of procedures. The ambiguity and severe  complexity  of procedures means acknowledging the loss in energy and this in turn  impedes the hopes while in the same time weakens the  enthusiasm in these organizations and an impedes the possibility to achieve continues innovation, thereby losing opportunities to the level of surrender to the risks and  assuming them to be unconquered obstacles.

There

The research problem was to identify the impact of monetary policies on economic growth in the oil and non-oil countries. The researcher chose the Republic of Iraq as an example for the oil countries and the Arab Republic of Egypt as an example for the non-oil countries to hold a comparison on the impact of monetary policies.

The research found that the monetary policies and their tools in the Iraqi economy affect the rate of GDP growth by 73%, which shows the strong impact of monetary policies on the economic growth in the Iraqi economy as an example of an oil state. GDP growth rate of 61%, indicating the impact of monetary policies on economic growth in the

The present research aims to identify and define the basic dimensions of the information management strategy and the administrative creativity in the Faculty of Management and Economics / the University of Kirkuk, as well as the role played by the dimensions of the information technology management strategy in achieving the administrative innovation in the college and the research problem was formulated in several questions. The research problem was formulated in several questions centered on the correlation between the research variables, and the research was based on a major hypothesis and five sub-hypotheses emerged from which it was subjected to several tests to ensure its validity. The researcher used the descriptive-analyti

Imposed on foreign oil companies from important sources in the financing of the general budget in most countries of the world income tax is considered as well as be used to achieve political, economic and social goals, and has developed the concept of the tax until it became play an important role in influencing the economic conditions of a country, and the aim of this research is to statement imposed on foreign oil companies operating in Iraq in the financing of the state budget income tax contribution, as well as clarify the contracts type contracts with these companies, which is in favor of Iraq, together with the Income Tax Law No. (19) for the year / 2010, and instructed No. (5) for the year / 2011, which organized the tax process s

With the fast-growing of neural machine translation (NMT), there is still a lack of insight into the performance of these models on semantically and culturally rich texts, especially between linguistically distant languages like Arabic and English. In this paper, we investigate the performance of two state-of-the-art AI translation systems (ChatGPT, DeepSeek) when translating Arabic texts to English in three different genres: journalistic, literary, and technical. The study utilizes a mixed-method evaluation methodology based on a balanced corpus of 60 Arabic source texts from the three genres. Objective measures, including BLEU and TER, and subjective evaluations from human translators were employed to determine the semantic, contextual an